How the NDP can benefit from running a different kind of leadership race
The NDP leadership race is an opportunity to build momentum and the party would be smart to set a format that captures the interest of Canadians.
There’s no sugar-coating how things look for the federal NDP right now. The loss of party status is going to create major obstacles for them between now and the next election, and will only exacerbate many of the challenges that led to their poor result in the recent election, including a worsening financial situation for the party.
If the NDP are going to turn things around, they will need to take advantage of every opportunity they get, and there’s no more imminent opportunity to make a splash than through the recently announced leadership race that will conclude next March.
I’ve talked before about the inherent upside of competitive leadership races. These campaigns focus media and public attention onto parties that they would otherwise not receive, and permit parties to initiate a channel change on their own branding and public perception.
The recent federal Liberal leadership race is a prime example of how these contests can reverse political momentum, with Carney reviving the Liberal Party from the brink of collapse, and eventually winning a general election riding the momentum of his leadership campaign bump.
Poilievre’s leadership race was not that different. The Conservatives trailed by 4 points in the first Leger poll after Erin O’Toole resigned as party leader, but they turned things around during their leadership race and were leading by 6 points in the first Leger poll after Poilievre became leader. That lead continued until 2025.
I’m not anticipating the same swing for the NDP over the course of their upcoming leadership race, but it should be the party’s goal from the exercise. The NDP only received 6% of the vote in the 2025 election, down from 18% in 2021, so there are enough former NDP votes available for recapture to make a doubling of NDP support a real possibility.
However, that can only happen if the NDP leadership race is noticed by voters. Carney and Poilievre both created national buzz with their leadership campaigns, getting frequent media attention and scoring viral moments.
Unfortunately for the NDP, New Democrats have really struggled to break into the national conversation over the past decade.
A successful leadership race will need to change that trend by finding ways to consistently elevate the NDP into the national political conversation.
If I were in charge of setting rules for the contest, I would be thinking of this challenge and trying to find ways to push the envelope with the following principles in mind:
A Quiet Leadership Race is a Failure - The party needs to swing at every pitch right now, and this may be their best chance to capture buzz and headlines between now and the next election. If NDP support doesn’t rise over the course of the campaign, the party will remain in existential trouble.
You are Trying to Find a Leader Who Can Make a Headline - Without party status, the NDP won’t be getting coverage for the next few years unless the new leader is capable of creating their own news. Set up a leadership race that tests and rewards candidates’ abilities to create a news story, and you will likely end up with the type of leader the party needs for this moment.
Always Look for a Chance to Grow - The Carney and Poilievre leadership races brought in historic membership numbers and fundraising boons to their respective parties. The people who are engaged by the leadership contenders will provide the volunteer base and funding for the next general election campaign, so look for new audiences, reduce barriers to get involved, and have a plan today for how to convert everyone who participates to become active volunteers or donors.
This is A Great Time to Make Mistakes - Mistakes are never ideal, but the party has a get out of jail free card right now. Make choices that are innovative and disruptive when setting the rules for the leadership contest. If they work, the new leader can benefit from them. If they don’t, it’s easy for the new leader to dismiss them as decisions made by the old guard. Don’t worry too much about tarnishing the current party brand when you know that brand will be replaced in a year.
Creating a Contest that Meets These Objectives
When risk isn’t something to fear, the possibilities for contest rules open up dramatically. Here’s a list of innovations the NDP might want to consider when setting the rules and planning the campaign:
Embrace Debates - Have an English and French debate early, with a low barrier of entry. This will encourage more candidates to enter and sign-up members and will create buzz with a major event to capture media interest early in the contest. Follow this up with at least one more debate in each language after the field has been narrowed.
Supplement with Audience-Focused Debates and Events - Any event where all candidates share a stage can create news stories, so encourage this. The NDP did relatively well in Indigenous communities in the last election, so an APTN debate would give an opportunity to connect to an important audience. Consider partnering with labour groups for all-candidate events to re-engage unionized voters who have left the party, or a youth-focused debate hosted on Twitch or YouTube.
Reduce the Distance Between Candidates and the Public - Create a forum on the NDP website where members can submit questions for candidates and each campaign can post text or video replies. This will prompt members and media to routinely interact with the NDP website and candidate messaging in between events, and could be a reliable source of stories for journalists on slow news days.
Incentivize Virality - Official NDP accounts should be prompting campaigns to get involved in topics and trends on social media on a daily basis, and should amplify the conversations that result. Find some sort of prize that can be given to the campaign that authors the most viral social media post showing the party in a positive light every week.
Activate Progressive Voices - Every prominent NDP voice in the country should be given their own date during the campaign where they are expected to engage with all of the candidates in a newsworthy way. Charlie Angus inviting every candidate to attend a protest with him is a national news story. Kiefer Sutherland doing a Zoom call with the candidates is a national news story. Wab Kinew inviting all of the candidates to Winnipeg for a summit on progressive strategy is a national news story.
Require Outreach Beyond Big Cities - The one-member, one-vote nature of the 2017 leadership race encouraged candidates to campaign in big cities where more votes were available, but the NDP needs national growth. If this voting format stays in place, the signature requirement for becoming a candidate must become more onerous, forcing candidates to engage with members in hundreds of ridings rather than dozens.1
Offer Free Membership to Anyone Who Plants a Tree - The NDP has gained traction at moments when the NDP is seen as a party of action compared to other parties that only offer words. You can build up that branding by bringing collective action into the leadership race in some way to show that the NDP is all about action leading to tangible positive outcomes. That said, tree planting might be logistically challenging to facilitate and track so there might be other ideas that are more practical.2
There’s no easy solution to the wide array of challenges that the federal NDP are facing, but any path towards future success will start with something that re-energizes the party. Rule-setters would be wise to see the upcoming leadership campaign as an opportunity to spark interest and design a race that prompts Canadians to talk about the new-look NDP.
The 2017 rules only required candidates to acquire 50 signatures each from Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, the Prairies and BC/North.
The tree angle is an interesting one to take here, as the Liberals have been seen as slow-acting on their promise to plant 2 billion trees. If it is feasible to organize, there’s a clear messaging win available that would frame the NDP as willing to deliver on progressive policies where the Liberals may not have met expectations.