Federal Vote: Liberals 40%, Conservatives 40% as Confidence Vote Approaches
Only 1-in-10 voters say they would change who they voted for in the April election if given the opportunity.
Survey findings in this post are drawn from a North Poll Strategies online survey of 1,687 Canadians conducted November 1-7, 2025. Results are weighted by region, age, gender, education and past federal vote to be representative of the Canadian voting population. Subscribe to see more results from this survey as soon as they are released.
New polling from North Poll Strategies shows the Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked in federal vote intention, suggesting Canada would be in for a tightly contested election if the Liberal Budget fails next week.
Mark Carney’s Liberals have seen their support slide four points since Election Day, with the NDP, BQ and Greens each up slightly. This may indicate that those who voted strategically for the Liberals have returned to their prior political allegiances.
If so, Carney’s ability to win an election in the next few months may depend on his party’s ability to make another strategic voting pitch to these oscillating voters.
When voters are asked if they would go back and change their vote in the April election, if given the chance, only 1-in-10 Canadians say they would make a different choice.
Conservatives are the most loyal voter base by a narrow margin - the party has retained 92% of their voters from the past election.
Regional and demographic results are available below for paid subscribers, as well as a breakdown of the voter pools for the Liberals, CPC, NDP and Greens.
